Hern projected to win Oklahoma GOP Senate primary

By Caroline Boda
The Center Square

U.S. Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., is projected to win the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate seat in an effort to succeed recently installed Homeland Security Chief Markwayne Mullin. Hern’s opponent in the general election on Nov. 3 will be determined in a Democratic runoff later this summer.

With the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating Oklahoma’s Senate seat “Solid Republican,” Hern is the favorite to win this fall.

Oklahoma’s seat in the Senate was left vacant after Mullin resigned in March to join President Donald Trump’s cabinet as head of the Department of Homeland Security. Per state law, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt named a temporary replacement, energy executive Alan Armstrong, until Oklahoma voters could decide their next senator in an election.

That time has come, and the race for Oklahoma’s open Senate seat will play a part in determining which party takes control of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections. Senate Republicans have a slight 53-45 majority and are banking on keeping Mullin’s open seat red in their effort to maintain control of the chamber for the remainder of Trump’s term in the White House.

Republican primary

Hern held the lead in the Republican Senate primary Tuesday night, surpassing the 50% vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff in August.

“Oklahomans deserve strong conservative leadership and a Senator who will fight for our values,” Hern said on social media Tuesday evening. “I look forward to earning your support again in November and serving as your next United States Senator.”

Hern currently represents Oklahoma’s 1st district in the U.S. House of Representatives, a seat he’s held since 2018. Before entering politics, Hern became a multimillionaire businessman through a career owning 24 McDonald’s franchises.

During his tenure in the House, Hern was the chairman of the powerful Republican Study Committee and built a voting record as a fiscal conservative.

Hern led the Republican field in fundraising going into Tuesday’s primary, pulling in $9.3 million in total funds, according to his latest filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The next closest opponent was firefighter-paramedic Brian Ragain with $27,000 in funds.

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary advanced to a runoff on Tuesday night. N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas and Jim Priest will face each other on Aug. 25 in a race to determine the Democratic nominee for Oklahoma’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Thomas is a nurse and active-duty military spouse. She built her campaign on her healthcare background and has committed to expanding rural healthcare and protecting the Affordable Care Act if elected to the Senate. She did not release details of the taxpayer costs of her proposals.

Jim Priest, a lawyer and ordained minister, was in second place as of Tuesday night. Priest’s campaign focused on cost-of-living concerns affecting voters on both sides of the political aisle.

“Paychecks will still fall short, healthcare will still be too expensive and the cost of groceries will just keep going up,” Priest said. “And instead of solving these problems, Washington attempts to divide us into us and them.”

Thomas led in the primary despite trailing Priest in fundraising. In her latest FEC filings, Thomas reported $45,000 in total funds compared to Priest’s $263,000. She has spent nearly all those funds, with just $547 remaining as of May 27.

The winning Democratic nominee will face an uphill battle securing a Senate seat that hasn’t been held by a Democrat since 1994.

Road to November

After a Democratic nominee is determined in August’s runoff, Hern and his opponent will face each other in the general election on Nov. 3.

The midterm election season is shaping up as a tight contest, with both parties vying for control of Congress in the final two years of Trump’s term.

Republicans are seeking to defend their majorities in both the U.S. Senate and the House. Democrats, on the other hand, see the midterms as their chance to take back control of Congress and set the terms for the rest of Trump’s presidency.