By Thérèse Boudreaux
The Center Square

Democrats are sounding the alarm over a new analysis showing that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will cause millions of Medicaid recipients to lose their current coverage.

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s newest estimate, Medicaid reforms in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will result in roughly 10 million people losing eligibility for their current health care plan by 2034.

“This latest analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office confirms that the deeply unpopular One Big Ugly Law is also deeply unfair,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said in a response statement. “The American people deserve better than this cruel Republican budget scam.”

Republicans, however, have pointed out that the breakdown of the numbers offers a different perspective. Out of the 10 million affected, 5.3 million are able-bodied adults without dependents. Under the OBBBA, they could still remain on Medicaid, so long as they participate in work-related activities at least 80 hours per month.

The work requirements would not apply to pregnant women; minors and seniors; foster youth under 26; Tribal members; the medically frail; those already meeting TANF or SNAP work requirements; caregivers with young dependents; or the currently and recently incarcerated.

Another 3.7 million current Medicaid recipients set to lose coverage will still have access to some other form of government-sponsored health insurance. These individuals are primarily dual enrollees in Medicare and Medicaid, or those who are erroneously enrolled in Medicaid in more than one state. The former group would lose Medicaid but could retain Medicare, while the latter would be eligible to claim their Medicaid coverage only in their actual state of residence.

The remaining 1 million impacted individuals are noncitizens who do not meet immigration status requirements for Medicaid enrollment. Those noncitizens have nonetheless received coverage under taxpayer-funded, state-sponsored Medicaid programs.

“The prolonged lie exacerbated by Democrats that 17 million individuals will lose health care coverage from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has finally been dispelled,” House Committee on Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., said Monday.

“It’s easy to scare people with coverage loss estimates, but the facts are clear – the vast majority of these individuals are either choosing to lose coverage or aren’t actually eligible for Medicaid, and nearly all are eligible for other forms [of] coverage.”

Overall federal spending on Medicaid will still grow by 30% over the next decade, provided that Republicans refrain from further enrollee-reducing changes in another ‘big, beautiful bill,” which GOP leaders are considering.