Farm Bureau says Thanksgiving prices down, but not enough

By Brett Rowland
The Center Square

The cost of a Thanksgiving meal is down 5% this year, but Americans still feel strained by high food prices, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The Farm Bureau’s yearly look at the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner includes 10 servings of turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream. The survey found lower costs for the third consecutive year.

The 2025 Thanksgiving meal is projected at $55.18, down 5% from 2024’s $58.08 and 2023’s $61.17. Costs have decreased for three consecutive years.

“Three years of declines don’t fully erase dramatic increases that led to a record-high cost of $64.05 in 2022,” the annual report noted.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall urged Congress to take action.

“Despite modest declines in the cost of a Thanksgiving meal, I know food prices are a real concern for many families, including in rural America,” he said. “We urge Congress to address the challenging economic conditions facing farmers to ensure farm families can continue growing the food we all rely on, not just on Thanksgiving, but every day of the year.”

The most significant price decrease was for turkey, which could drop further with store and holiday promotions. The 16% decline in turkey prices from last year helped bring down the overall cost of the meal. The average price for a 16-pound frozen turkey is $21.50.

“While the wholesale price for fresh turkey is up from 2024, grocery stores are featuring Thanksgiving deals and attempting to draw consumer demand back to turkey, leading to lower retail prices for a holiday bird,” the report noted.

“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” AFBF Economist Faith Parum said. “Farmers are still working to rebuild turkey flocks that were devastated by avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen.”

While turkey prices fell, the cost of other Thanksgiving staples increased, with some prices rising by double-digit amounts. For example, the cost of a veggie tray is up 61% and sweet potatoes jumped 37%. Half of the ingredients in the survey decreased in price, including dinner rolls and stuffing.

The Farm Bureau said that natural disasters contributed to the increase. The group noted that North Carolina, the largest sweet potato grower in the U.S., was hit by a hurricane.

“Additionally, fresh produce prices tend to be highly volatile, and even modest supply-chain disruptions, from weather, labor shortages, transportation delays or regional production setbacks, can trigger sharp, short-term spikes in prices,” according to the report. “The continued shortage of farmworkers and rapidly increasing farm wages also played a role in rising produce costs. It’s important to note that fresh vegetables and potatoes are traditionally low-cost items, so an increase of just a few cents can dramatically affect the cost change percentage year-to-year.”

The Farm Bureau said the national average cost was calculated using surveys completed with pricing data from all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers checked prices in person and online using grocery store apps and websites. They looked for the best possible prices without using special promotional coupons or combined purchase deals.

Since 1986, the AFBF survey has tracked holiday meal costs using the same menu for consistent price comparisons.

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump took credit for bringing down the price of Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal deal, which had declined by 25%. However, that deal included fewer items than the previous year and different food brands, making comparisons difficult.

The Farm Bureau’s informal survey was released days after Trump signed an executive order exempting over 200 food products from tariffs, a response to consumer concerns about high prices. However, the Farm Bureau collected price data before Trump’s reversal on food tariffs. Trump’s exemptions were intended to address voter frustrations about food costs, an issue Trump highlighted during his 2024 campaign, where he promised action on grocery prices. Exit polls recently confirmed that high prices remain a key concern for voters.

Individual Prices

16-pound turkey: $21.50 or $1.34 per pound (down 16.3%)14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.71 (down 9%)2 frozen pie crusts: $3.37 (down .8%)Half pint of whipping cream: $1.87 (up 3.2%)1 pound of frozen peas: $2.03 (up 17.2%)1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.56 (down 14.6%)Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.61 (down 4.7%)30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.16 (up .1%)1 gallon of whole milk: $3.73 (up 16.3%)3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $4.00 (up 37%)1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $1.36 (up 61.3%)12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.28 (down 2.8%)