By Carleen Johnson
The Center Square

The Pacific Northwest could be facing a challenging winter ahead when it comes to the demand for power and potential blackouts.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which develops and enforces mandatory reliability standards for the North American bulk power system to prevent and reduce the risk of blackouts, said this week the region has joined the ranks of U.S. areas at “elevated risk” of a power shortfall in the case of extreme weather events in the coming months.

NERC reported the region faces a rising winter peak demand, projected to be 9.3% higher than last year, driven by new data centers, residential electrification and transportation electrification.

“There [are] some big trends happening across North America, and, really, the Northwest is in the crosshairs of this,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of reliability assessments, told The Center Square on Thursday.

NERC’s 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American bulk power supply for the upcoming winter season. NERC defines the Pacific Northwest as Oregon, Washington and Montana, as well as parts of Northern California and northern Idaho.

“So across North America, we’ve seen demand increasing by over 20 gigawatts. That’s a lot of energy need,” Olson said. “It’s a 2.5% year-over-year change in peak demand. And a lot of this is driven by data centers and large industrial loads. And that’s what’s leading to bigger demand growth, and really the largest kind of demand growth we’ve seen in decades.”

Olson noted that wind and solar power generation and storage of that power are often not reliable in the coldest winter months.

“The resources that are most progressed and starting to connect to the grid are more variable in nature, and they don’t perform as well in the winter. It’s wind power and solar resources. They’ll help meet those demands that are rising in the summertime, but in the wintertime, what we see is that the reserves that the grid operator has to work with are shrinking,” he continued. “On the positive side, the Northwest is blessed to have a lot of hydropower. Your projections for the winter are good.”

He went on to say, “I think the Northwest has been spared in the last couple of winters, but the reality is weather, severe winter weather, is the challenge. And if the weather conditions are right and you get combinations of precipitation and extreme cold weather, the wind fleet can suffer and supplies dwindle.”

He explained their projections are intended to advise power grid operators and the public.

“It’s serious to lose power, particularly in the winter. Our society is reliant on electricity for all manner of things, but it can become a matter of life and death,” Olson said. “So that is the worry. And that is why NERC works hard to make sure the industry is paying attention [to] and is doing the pre-winter preparations that are needed and has rehearsed their operating protocols to be able to mitigate the extreme weather challenges that can accompany winter.”

NERV avoids weighing into the politics of power, but advises utilities and consumers to be mindful of the limitations of the current grid.

“Having variable energy from wind and solar can help deliver energy needs during many hours of the day. But during times of darkness and in winter, unfortunately, that’s often when demand is at its highest. Winter is a special challenge,” Olson said. “Extreme cold weather events that last for a long time often don’t provide much daylight and sunlight for those solar resources. And so, it really is a time where power grid operators are finding that the resources available to meet and maintain that balance of supply and demand are fickle and more difficult to deal with in winter.”

During a cold snap in January 2024, energy utilities in Washington and Oregon asked customers to limit gas and electricity usage after the Northwest’s largest storehouse of natural gas shut down because of the extreme cold.

As noted by the Western Power Pool, the Jan. 12-16, 2024 cold snap “highlighted a tipping point and demonstrated how close the region is to a resource adequacy crisis.”

“Wintertime is a time when we all should be doing our best to be prepared to take care of our family and loved ones. It’s important to pay attention to what your state administrations and utilities are communicating,” Olson advised. “You may get the word from state agencies or utilities that conservation is needed. Power grid operators work hard to be reliable year-round, but recognize that winter is especially challenging and it’s not getting.”