Tariff uncertainty here to stay regardless of Supreme Court ruling

By Brett Rowland
The Center Square

Even as small businesses wait for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule on President Donald Trump’s tariff authority, a supply chain expert says uncertainty around import duties will continue.

“Tariff uncertainty is here to stay, regardless of the ruling,” said Matt Lekstutis, director at Efficio, a global supply chain and procurement consultancy.

Trump has made tariffs a central part of his second-term agenda. Last April, Trump imposed import taxes of at least 10% on every U.S. trading partner. Since then, the president has repeatedly suspended and changed tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

A group of states and small businesses challenged Trump’s tariffs under the 1977 law, winning in two lower courts before the administration appealed to the Supreme Court. The high court agreed to hear the case on an expedited basis.

Lekstutis told The Center Square that the most likely outcome is a narrow procedural ruling from the Supreme Court that would clarify limits on presidential tariff authority without invalidating the import taxes.

That would mean tariffs would remain in place with continued pressure on prices.

Lekstutis said most businesses have already taken steps to diversify their supply chains.

“They recognize that they’re living in a world of complex volatility related to geopolitics … and that these kinds of changes are going to continue regardless of how this ruling goes,” he told The Center Square.

If the Supreme Court rules against Trump on tariffs, it could take months to unwind the taxes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Lekstutis said Trump can use other laws that more explicitly give him the power to impose tariffs, but those measures come with limits and more Congressional oversight.

Refunds could be complicated as well.

“That process will likely take a lengthy period of time,” he told The Center Square, saying it could take years.

Trump has previously suggested that a ruling against his tariffs would lead the nation to economic ruin.

Businesses have reported that tariffs have pushed up consumer prices.