Midterm elections poll shows tight congressional races

By Thérèse Boudreaux
The Center Square

Eight months in advance, the midterm elections are looking tight. A new national survey shows that voters, despite some general dissatisfaction with the Republican trifecta’s performance, have not fully embraced the Democratic alternative.

The Center Square’s newest Voters’ Voice Poll shows that 43% of U.S. registered voters surveyed would vote for a Republican candidate if elections were held today and 44% would vote for a Democratic candidate. Eleven percent of voters haven’t made up their minds yet.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights between March 2-5, 2026. The poll sample included 2,659 respondents, comprised of 952 Republicans, 934 Democrats, and 773 Independents, of which 330 are True Independents, which Noble Predictive refers to as independents who, when asked if they leaned toward one of the major parties, chose neither. It is among the most comprehensive tracking polls in the country.

While the leanings of members in either of the two major political parties remain relatively stable, with roughly 85% of voters on each side choosing their own party’s candidate, swing voters’ choices show warning signs for Republicans.

Independents favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by a 10 percentage point margin – 34% to 24%, respectively.

A third of total Independents remain undecided, however, and True Independents slightly favored Republicans over Democrats, 23% to 16%. More than half of True Independents are still unsure.

“These swing voters who decide elections are unhappy, but they’re not really yet convinced by either party,” Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Nobel Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “When you look at the generic ballot, you notice Democrats have a slight one or two point edge. But again, based on this dissatisfaction, [voters] normally should be clamoring to go to the other side at this point.”

Notably, groups particularly sensitive to the rising costs of living are turning to Democrats, who have criticized recent price increases due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the refusal of Republicans to renew COVID-19 era Obamacare tax credits.

Voters earning under $50,000 per year favored Democrats 46% to 38%, while voters earning between $50,000 to $100,000 annually favored Democrats 46% to 41%.

The median annual household income in the U.S. was $83,730 in 2024, according to the United States Census Bureau.

The median income for Black households was about $32,000 less than that, while the median income for Hispanic voters was approximately $18,000 less than the overall median income. Only 18% of Black voters and 33% of Hispanic voters said in the Voters’ Voice Poll that they would choose a Republican candidate.

Young voters also viewed Republicans negatively, with 31% choosing a Republican candidate and half choosing a Democratic one. Voters ages 30-64 leaned slightly Republican, while those ages 65 and above, who are particularly vulnerable to health care cost increases, favored Democrats with 47%.

Female voters, whose median income in 2024 was about $14,000 less than males’, supported a Democratic candidate by 48% and a Republican candidate by 36% in the poll, with 14% remaining unsure. By contrast, half of male voters surveyed supported Republicans, while 40% supported Democrats.

Noble says that promoting the affordability message is “100% the Democrats’ path to victory this election,” rather than promoting controversial social issues that remain unpopular with most swing voters.

“You see in the key groups that Trump pulled together to win [in 2024] – such as 18 to 29-year-olds, Independents, Hispanic, Latino, the lower household income earners – you see that Democrats are winning with all of those groups right now,” Noble said.

“And so if they can stick to pocketbook, affordability messaging, they’ll have a great midterm. But if they get pulled into trans women’s sports or some of these other social issues that have not been good for them, they have the opportunity to screw up a good thing.”

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 1.9%.